Before we get too far into this, it’s worth reminding you that Kansas freshman Gradey Dick has been a projected lottery pick by multiple NBA mock drafts throughout the season and he was listed at No. 11 overall in Jonathan Givony’s latest mock draft for ESPN.com, dated March 9, 2023.
So, the chances that we’ve seen Dick play his last game as a Jayhawk are certainly pretty high and the smart money, if one were betting on it, would be on him leaving Kansas after one season.
While most people I’ve talked to have put the chances of him leaving in the 90% range (or higher), I think it’s closer to 70-75%. Still high, to be sure, but far from a lock.
Here’s why.
The first and biggest factor in all of this is the NIL opportunities that Gradey has had and would continue to have if he were to stay at KU.
We’re talking real money here. And, given his status as the face of the program, a returning starter and one of the best freshmen to ever play at KU, it seems very likely that he would be positioned to make quite a bit more NIL money next season than he did this season. That’s not nothing.
In years past, when players who wanted to stay were faced with this decision, they were pretty much told they had to make the right move for themselves and their families because what the NBA offered was life-changing money. So they left, some of them with tears in their eyes as they announced their decisions to turn pro.
There’s no doubt in my mind that the decision to leave could bring tears to Gradey’s eyes, as well.
Remember, this is a kid who grew up worshiping all things Kansas basketball and now he’s living out his dream. Not only is he on the roster and wearing the uniform and playing in front of the crowd, but he also already has a huge role and would likely have an even bigger role if he were to return.
That’s not nothing.
Kansas guard Gradey Dick (4) looks to pass as Arkansas guard Davonte Davis (4) defends during the first half on Saturday, March 18, 2023 at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa. Photo by Nick Krug
Even after the tough loss to Arkansas that ended his season, Gradey sat in the locker room with his head up and told anyone who asked what a “blast” he had during his freshman season with the Jayhawks.
It’s not likely that he’ll opt for three or four seasons, but it’s not hard to envision him wanting one more after getting a taste of living out his dream and watching it fly by. Not only would a return for his sophomore season put Gradey in position to be the man for the Jayhawks next year, but he’d also be even more beloved than he already is. And that’s saying something.
The minute he makes the decision to leave, all of that goes away. He’ll still have the memories, of course. And he’ll always be able to say that he lived out his dream of playing for Kansas. Plus, he’ll quickly transition to that other dream of his, which is playing in the NBA. That’s not nothing either.
But anyone who has been there — and Gradey surely has plenty of access to these types of people — will tell you that the difference between the rah-rah world of college basketball and the business that is the NBA is night and day.
You’ve all seen the Tik Tok videos and the goofy-kid personality. Would it absolutely shock you if Gradey said he wasn’t ready to make basketball a full-time job yet?
Then there’s the support system. We’ve seen for the past couple of decades that Kansas coach Bill Self and the rest of the staff are always going to put their players before any selfish desires of their own. Would they love to have Gradey back for the 2023-24 season? You bet. It would be the biggest recruiting win they could possibly hope for this offseason.
But they’re never going to put what’s best for them above what’s best for the kids. So, like they did with countless other players before him, they’ll provide Gradey with the best and most complete information about his decision and encourage him to make the best choice for him and his family. If that’s to leave, they’ll support it 100%.
You’ve all heard the stories of players wanting to stay and Self telling them that doing so, as much as he would love to have them back, was not the right move. That’s a huge part of this equation every time and every year because these kids can trust that Self and company have the players’ best interests as their top priority. Look no further than former KU big man Joel Embiid for proof of that. Embiid has said many times that he wanted to come back to KU. But, as a top-three pick and future NBA All-Star, Self told him he simply couldn’t remain a Jayhawk. The time was right for him to go, so he went. If the time is right for Gradey, he’ll go, too.
Like his Kansas basketball family, his actual family also figures to play a huge role in this decision. His parents are rock stars. They’ve done right by their son throughout his playing career, arming him with opportunity and information and also letting him have the room to breathe that he needed to make his own decisions and live with the successes and failures — however big or small — that came with them.
They’ll do the same thing here. You don’t have to look too closely to see how much they enjoyed Gradey’s freshman season. They, like their son, had a blast watching him play for Kansas and would surely sign up for another year of that. But this isn’t about them and they won’t make it that way.
Gradey’s mom, Carmen, recently told me the story about him moving from Wichita Collegiate to Sunrise Christian for his final two seasons of high school. She said, point blank, that she wasn’t ready for her youngest child to move out of the house earlier than expected. But Gradey wanted to do it. The family agreed it was the best thing for his basketball future. So, he went. And look where it has taken him.
Beyond that, I remember talking to his dad, Bart, last spring before Gradey even arrived on KU’s campus, and he told me then that they had no idea what the future held for their son and that they were going to take it one step at a time and make the best decisions possible from there. He said directly that Gradey wasn’t coming to KU expecting to be here for one year or two years or three years or four years, but instead to have the time of his life and see where it would take him.
They’ll let all of that guide him in this decision and he’s incredibly lucky to have parents who get it and who will give him the space he needs to make this his decision and his decision alone while also not being afraid to tell him some hard truths about staying and about going.
Kansas guard Gradey Dick (4) roars after forcing an Iowa State turnover during the second half on Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023 at Allen Fieldhouse.
Last but certainly not least is the part that factors Gradey’s game into the picture and how ready he actually is for the NBA.
Could he go? Absolutely. And his elite 3-point shot and great size for a guard would make him a welcomed addition to just about any NBA roster.
But there’s also room to grow. He can get stronger and mature physically. He can improve his game — offensively and defensively — and any progress he makes in that department, (a) could actually help his draft stock, pushing him from mid-to-late lottery firmly into the top 10, and (b) would set him up much better to succeed long term once he’s actually in the league.
Years ago, I used to argue that players who still needed to develop should do it in college. Then, a friend or two opened my eyes to the idea that by jumping to the professional ranks improving your game becomes your job and people actually pay you to get better, bigger and stronger.
That makes sense to me now. And it certainly seems like you can improve at a quicker rate when you don’t have to juggle classes and the limitations of how much time your coaches can spend working with you.
So, if it were just this one factor that was in play, the easy answer probably would be for Gradey to go.
But, as outlined above, there’s a lot more to this particular stay-or-go decision than that and I think there’s enough there to at least entertain the idea that Gradey might actually have a decision to make.
We’ll know soon enough what he chooses to do, and, truth be told, I think he’s sitting in a pretty enviable win-win situation.
